Draft Day Decisions: Julio Jones vs. DeAndre Hopkins

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]This is an interesting match up. Two “older” receivers who seem to be falling out of favor in the Dynasty community, even though both have plenty of gas left in the tank. In re-draft though, Julio has been a perennial late 1st/early 2nd round pick and that seems to be the case in 2020. The same can be said for DeAndre Hopkins as he has been going right around the same area, even though he was moved to Arizona this offseason. Some may be concerned with Nuk headed to a new team in the middle of a pandemic, but I’m not. HOWEVAH…who do I think you should take in your fantasy football draft?

The trade the Texans made by moving DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals for David Johnson, a 2020 2nd round pick and 2021 4th round pick was unexpected and threw up a ton of red flags for me. Why was Houston giving up on arguably one of the best WRs in the league a few months before he turns 28? Well, then I remembered Bill O’Brien was the GM of the Texans and is terrible at that job, so it all made sense and red flags were lowered as I got excited thinking about DeAndre in Cardinal red. The cupboard was bare during the 2020 NFL Draft due to a ton of terrible trade and there were rumors that Hopkins wasn’t happy with his contract, so I think the Texans felt forced to make this move. Billy Boy picked up the phone and fortunately, he sent Hopkins to the desert in Arizona where he will be paired with 2nd year QB Kyler Murray in Kliff Kingsbury’s up-tempo offense.

Hopkins will certainly be the #1 option with fellow WRs Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald as the WR2 and WR3 respectively, and Kenyan Drake will get some targets out of the backfield as well, but Arizona is expected to be a league leader in offensive plays ran in 2020, so I expect the volume to be there for Hopkins to see 9-11 targets per game. Being the elite WR he is, he should be able to turn that into a 90-100 catch, 1200-1300 yard and 7-10 TD campaign. Not too shabby for your fantasy WR1.

Julio Jones has been known as one of the most talented WRs in the NFL since his 2011 rookie season. While there were injury concerns early on in his career and you may have to deal with the weekly Questionable tag, he is probably going to suit up every week and be dominant for your fantasy squad. Julio, and his fantasy owners, have enjoyed 6 straight seasons where his total receiving yards never dipped below 1,394 and he finished with at least 83 receptions. With Julio Jones on your fantasy team, you have 0 doubt about your WR1.
In 2020, I think it comes down to the schedule. Both WRs are the lead dog at the position and have talented QBs throwing them the ball in pass first offenses, so those aspects of this debate is a wash. Arizona will have to face the San Francisco 49ers twice (including Week 1), who finished as 2019’s #2 pass defense, and Hopkins will meet up with top tier CB Jalen Ramsey and the Rams too. Those 4 games, plus dates with the Seahawks (who always play well at home), the Eagles, Patriots and Bills are all tough match ups. Even though Arizona has the 10th toughest schedule, there are at least 9 minus match ups for Hopkins. Meanwhile, Julio Jones and the Falcons are going to see a ton of cake walks thanks to being in the NFC South and they have the most favorable schedule for fantasy wide receivers.

When you are looking at 2 stars in the prime of their career (or pretty close to it) in a pass happy offense and with great QBs throwing them the ball, you have to have a tie breaker. To me, that tie breaker is familiarity with the offense and the Strength of Schedule. Give me Julio in 2020. 2021? That’s a different story. We can talk about that next season…[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]