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2020 NFL Free Agency: How Do The Moves Impact Your Collection?

March 17, 2020

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Before I started this venture along with Adam, I started a podcast/blog called The Never Ending Glory Podcast that focused on the NFL, fantasy football, entertainment and any other topics/sport I wanted to talk about. Adam built my website for that (you can see it HERE), and while the podcast has been dormant, the blog is back in full swing with the latest news breaking in NFL Free Agency.  Trades have been wild, as have been the signings, and with each move there is been a direct impact in player’s card value. Seeing that fantasy football and card collecting basically goes hands in hand, I thought it would be great for our readers and customers to see a full break down of the NFL landscape (table below), with some thoughts or examples of the impact to card value.[/vc_column_text][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”5/6″][vc_column_text]

Without further ado…let’s go!

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Tom Brady leaves the New England Patriots and agrees to a deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Oh boy. Hand up, I am a die hard Patriots fan. If you follow our Instagram account, I am constantly updating you on the new additions to my Tom Brady PC. I expected Brady to eventually move on from the Patriots and wrote about it at length HERE. From a collecting stand point, this is interesting…

  • Tom Brady – Will Tom Brady get the LeBron treatment? Once LeBron went to LA, his new cards skyrocketed in value. Now, LA obviously have a lot more clout to it than Tampa Bay, so maybe that is the main reason for the value increase…but Peyton Manning’s value went up a bit when he went to the Broncos in 2012. The new jersey rejuvenated collectors again and that pumped up his value. I’m intrigued to see what  happens to Brady’s value in both his Patriots and Bucs unis
  • Jarrett Stidham – Barring any unforeseen changes, I think Stidham will be the guy under center in 2020. The Patriots don’t have a ton of cap space as Belichick as invested on the O-Line and Defense recently, so I think the strategy is to build around a QB making less than $1 million. Most savvy collectors knew that Stidham was probably the guy in a year ot two, so they scooped up a lot of his cards early in 2019, but they were never at a basement price because of Brady’s age and the uncertainty of his job in New England. I’d suggest trying to seek out some Stidham cards as long as they are not astronomically priced
  • Chris Godwin and Mike Evans – I picked up a Godwin Origins RPA the day the new broke of Brady to TB. Honestly, Godwin and Mike Evans are two of the most undervalued players in the hobby. Godwin just came off a 86/1333/9 season and should see his catches go up a bit. Evans has been in the league for 6 year and has 6 years of 1,000+ yard production to his name…and these numbers were all with Jameis Winston throwing him the ball! Even if Brady regresses a bit from 2019, I like both Godwin and Evans to have great seasons
  • OJ  Howard– Will he reach his full potential now that Brady is in Tampa and likes to use his Tight Ends? There will be a ton of targets going to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, so I’m not sure there will be enough to go around and make OJ a huge hobby name

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The Arizona Cardinals move RB David Johnson for WR DeAndre Hopkins

There was more to this deal, but for our purposes, lets talk about the major moving pieces in this trade

  • Kyler Murray – The 2019 #1 overall pick was seeing his value go up the past few weeks, but adding a top flight receiver like Hopkins helps it ton. A few weeks ago, I was buying his Prizm base card for $12-$15 off eBay and was seeing eBay auctions ending around $20-$25. We sent 5 of his Prizm cards off to be graded, but listed one in our eBay store for $29.99 or Best Offer. Within an hour of the Hopkins trade, we received 2 offers of $20 and then someone bought it outright for $29.99. Seeing the potential in a huge 2nd year leap for Kyler, collectors are making him one of the hottest buys in the hobby right now
  • DeShaun Watson – Many who invested heavily in Watson in 2019 are NOT happy with the Texans replacing DeAndre Hopkins with Randall Cobb. Watson was one of the players who had been trending up in value, but I expect to see a sharp decline now that his WR1 is in the desert
  • DeAndre Hopkins – Hopkins has always has somewhat depressed value and I don’t fully understand why. Over the last 5 years, he has finished 100+ catches 3 times (with 96 catches in 2017) and has had over 1,000 yards 5 out of his 7 NFL seasons. If he goes to Arizona and enjoys a career season (will be hard to top his 2018 stat line of 115/1572/11) I don’t expect to see his value jump a ton
  • Larry Fitzgerald – The future hall of famer could put up goose egg every week and his value wouldn’t take a hit. He is one of the true legends of the game and his hobby value shows that. There is no window to buy him low…sorry
  • David Johnson – DJ hasn’t lived up to his 2nd year breakout season mainly due to injuries. Is he washed up? I don’t think so, but he is trending that way. His value is at an all time low, so if he can put together another 1,400+ YFS season, maybe you’ll see his rookies and autos jump up a bit
  • Kenyan Drake – 2019 breakout star Kenyan Drake was given the Franchise Tag and is now the defacto RB1 in Arizona. He has had a rollercoaster career in the hobby, playing well for the Dolphins, being relegated to the bench, traded for a bag of balls to Arizona and then a great fantasy football option for the Cardinals last year. If he can continue to be a cog in a high upside offense in Arizona, I like his prices to rise in 2020
  • Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella – Two former 2nd round picks who collectors were hoping would pan out now see a major hit in targets with DeAndre coming to town. I still like both to be solid producers, though their likely limited chances for gaudy production will suppress their hobby value

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Dak Prescott is Franchised and Amari Cooper signs a 5 year $100m contract with the Dallas Cowboys

This is the best case scenario for both players. They stay in a huge sports market with a ton of fans, which is great for their value. I’m curious how they will keep Dak around long term considering they have given big money to Ezekiel Elliott and now Amari Cooper, but Jerry Jones will find a way.

Amari Cooper has been nothing but great since he was traded to Dallas. Now that he has the contract behind him and knows what his long term future looks like, hopefully he can move into the upper echelon of receivers. I like the idea of buying him somewhat low right now and capitalizing mid season if/when he produces elite numbers[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]

Derrick Henry is Franchised and Ryan Tannehill signs a 4 year $118 million contract with the Tennessee Titans

I thought the Titans would be in on Tom Brady considering Tannehill showed his weaknesses in the AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs, but you can’t deny his production. I have been picking up his autos and Prizm rookies whenever I can since a few more big games and/or deep playoff runs could push his value up.

Derrick Henry has been nothing but amazing over the past 18 months. He is a great fit in Tennessee, but I hope the loss of OT Jake Conklin doesn’t hurt his production too much. At the end of the season, Henry was arguably the most valuable RB in the hobby and I think a major shake up would have ultimately hurt his 2020 production. We won’t see that with this franchise tag and hopefully a long term deal being struck.[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]

Todd Gurley is cut by the LA Rams is a cost cutting move, but it immediately signed to a 1 year deal by the Atlanta Falcons

Once the darling of the hobby, Gurley’s balky knee and bloated contract were a Perfect Storm for the cap strapped Rams. They were spending money like me on eBay after a couple double IPAs (check out #BEERHITS on our Instagram page for examples of this) and something had to give. I honestly don’t believe Gurley being cut is a sign that he is done, but a sigh that RB is such a replaceable position in the NFL. The Rams drafted Darrell Henderson in the 3rd round last year, and as long as the O-Line continues to be ranked 31st in the league, it doesn’t matter who is playing RB in LA, they will struggle

  • Darrell Henderson – So I mentioned Henderson above and was pumped to pick up some of his stuff earlier this year for cheap.  He is almost certainly going to be the go-to guy in LA now and I am excited for his potential production as long as the Rams make some moves on the O-Line
  • Todd Gurley – From a collecting stand point, this may be the best case scenario. A former Georgia Bulldog, Gurley already had a huge fan base in Atlanta. Now that he is a Falcon, I expect a lot of those Falcon fans to log onto eBay (or CardCzar.com) and pick up some of his cards

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Austin Ekeler signs a 4 year $24.5 million contract with the Los Angeles Chargers

Ekeler was one of fantasy football’s break out players in 2019. An undrafted free agent, Ekeler didn’t have much in the way of cards or autograph available in the hobby. Now that he is tied up long term and likely the Chargers’ RB1 moving forward (he’d be GREAT with Tom Brady), I’d expect Panini to ink him to an autograph deal and you start to see a lot of his cards in 2020 products.[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]

Stefon Diggs is traded to the Buffalo Bills

  • Josh Allen – This impact was almost immediate. Within minutes of the deal being struck, I had multiple offers on our 2018 Prizm Josh Allen Auto PSA 10 as well as his Select Silver Rookie. Needless to say, both were sold rather quickly. I think there is a lot of steam behind Josh Allen right now, but I don’t see it  lasting. Ultimately, I think his ceiling is Matthew Stafford. He will always be a quality starter, but his lack of accurayc is going to become an issue sooner rather than later.
  • Stefon Diggs – Speaking of issues, the Vikings shipped Diggs to Buffalo because he had become a nuisance in Minnesota. What’s going to happen in Buffalo when Josh Allen over/under throws him one too many times? Buffalo has never been a huge market for receivers, though their fan base is loyal. On a national stage, I don’t think this helps Diggs’ value, but some Orchard Park collectors will pay a premium for a Diggs auto

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Nick Foles traded to the Chicago Bears

Simply put, this throws a ton of cold water on any hope that Mitchell Trubisky will turn into a top flight QB with the Bears. Maybe he will have a shot elsewhere, but if the Bears are going to spend $20+ million on Nick Foles, he will be the favorite to be under center for the Bears Week 1

And for those who believed in Minshew Mania, you may be rewarded! I’m not super high on him, but he will have every chance to prove me wrong now that he is the unquestioned starter in Jacksonville[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]

Baltimore Ravens trade TE Hayden Hurst to the Atlanta Falcons

  • Hayden Hurst – I have never been a huge Hayden Hurst fan. In fact, I called that Mark Andrews would be the superior player. With that being said, Hurst being shipped to Atlanta is great for his fantasy football and hobby outlook. You can basically get Hurst’s auto for free at this point, so if he excels in Atlanta as the #2 or #3 option in the pass game, his value will rise and you’ll walk away a winner in that transaction
  • Austin Hooper – Speaking of Atlanta TEs, Austin Hooper cashed in with the Cleveland Browns. Hooper made the best of his contract year and the Browns are hoping they have their TE of the future. It’s unlikely that Hooper will ever be a huge hobby chase, but if he truly blossoms in Cleveland, you could do well buying his cards for next to nothing right now, in hopes he turns into the next George Kittle or Travis Kelce
  • David Njoku – If you have been following football for the last year, you’d know that Njoku is nothing but a disappointment. The Hooper signing basically erases any of Njoku’s value unless he is cut/traded and latches onto a nice

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Saints QB/OW Taysom Hill is given a 1st round tenders by the New Orleans Saints

If you are trying to buy Taysom Hill right now, you missed the window by about 12 months.  Back when he was an unknown and only had a Contenders auto to his name, people were winning these at $.99 at auction. Today, you are paying $200+ for his 2017 rookie auto and he was just featured in the 2019 Contenders Veterans Auto set, which will cost you $75+. If you are a Saints fan, Taysom Hill fan or you like to collect odd ball autos, I get why you’d drop some coin on his cards, but I wouldn’t suggest it for any sort of long term hold. Hill isn’t a QB or a WR or a TE…he’s an offensive weapon without much upside and I’m shocked the Saints are paying him what they are.[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]

Teddy Bridgewater signs with the Carolina Panthers

Hear that sound? That is the sound of a bunch of North Carolinans (is that a word) racing to eBay to pick up a Teddy Bridgwater rookie card. You’ll definitely find a few of those in our eBay store tonight. Maybe even an auto?[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/6″][vc_single_image image=”108672″ img_size=”full”][vc_single_image image=”108689″ img_size=”full”][vc_single_image image=”108685″ img_size=”full”][vc_single_image image=”108686″ img_size=”full”][vc_single_image image=”108687″ img_size=”full”][vc_single_image image=”108691″ img_size=”full”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Quarterback

Rank

Player

Age

Team

Contract

Comments
1 Tom Brady 42 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Well…it happened. The writing was on the wall.
And no…I will NOT be panic selling all of my Tom Brady cards!
In fact…I’ll be buying more to remember the good times!
2 Drew Brees 41 New Orleans Saints 2 yrs $50m
3 Dak Prescott 26 Dallas Cowboys Franchise Tag Not surprising
4 Philip Rivers 38 Indianapolis Colts 1 yr/$25m
5 Jameis Winston 26
6 Ryan Tannehill 31 Tennessee Titans 4 yrs $118m/$62m gtd What a turn of events for Tannehill! What looked like a career as a back up has turned into a hefty pay day.
We saw his limitations in the AFCCG, but you can’t doubt how well he played for most of 2019.
Now the Titans have to pay Derrick Henry
7 Teddy Bridgewater 27 Carolina Panthers 3 yrs/$63m The successor to Cam Newton, Bridgewater should have an opportunity to shine with a new braintrust in Carolina who know how to air it out
8 Marcus Mariota 26 Las Vegas Raiders Meh. Whatever
9 Case Keenum 32 Cleveland Browns 3 yrs/$18m ($10m gtd) Nice veteran presence in the QB room for Baker Mayfield to learn from

Running Back
Rank Player Age Team Contract Comments
1 Derrick Henry 26 Tennessee Titans Franchise Tag
2 Melvin Gordon 26
3 Austin Ekeler 25 Los Angeles Chargers 4 yrs/ $24.5m ($15m gtd) Great move by the Chargers here. Ekeler will be a Top 20 fantasy football pick in 2020
4 Kenyan Drake 26 Arizona Cardinals Franchise Tag Didn’t expect this outcome, but it probably makes the most sense.
Arizona didn’t want to commit themselves to Drake who has only flashed.
Does this mean David Johnson will reunite with Bruce Arians in Tampa?
5 Jordan Howard 25 Miami Dolphins 2 yrs/$10m
6 Devonta Freeman 28
7 Carlos Hyde 29
8 Lamar Miller 28
8 Chris Thompson 29
10 Jalen Richard 27 Las Vegas Raiders 2 yrs/$7m ($3.375m gtd)
11 Peyton Barber 26
12 Frank Gore 36
13 Theo Riddick 28
14 Isaiah Crowell 27 Will The Crow fly somewhere else in 2020? I hope so. The unintentional comedy is top notch
15 LeSean McCoy 31
16 Spencer Ware 28
17 Devontae Booker 27
18 Dwayne Washington 25

Wide Receiver
Rank Player Age Team Contract Comments
1 Amari Cooper 25 Dallas Cowboys 5 yrs/$100m ($60m gtd) Oh nelly! Huge contracts being given out in Dallas.
This has to come back and bite them in the ass eventually, right?
2 AJ Green 31 Cincinnati Bengals Franchise Contract
3 Robby Anderson 26
4 Emmanuel Sanders 33
5 Rashard Higgins 25
6 Demarcus Robinson
7 Breshad Perriman 26
8 Randall Cobb 29 Houston Texans 3 yrs/$27m ($18.5m gtd) Bill O’Brien does it again!
9 Danny Amendola 34 Detroit Lions 1 yr/$5m ($4.5m gtd) Solid move for the Lions locking up Amendola.
Expect WR4 production from Danny, with the random 20 point game
10 Taylor Gabriel 29
11 Devin Funchess 25
12 Nelson Agholor 26
13 Phillip Dorsett 27
14 Chester Rogers 26
15 Paul Richardson 27

Tight End
Rank Player Age Team Contract Comments
1 Austin Hooper 25 Cleveland Browns The Browns just set the TE market by giving Austin Hooper a massive contract.
This signing hurts Jarvis Landry a bit, but gives the team an excellent TE in space,
which should pair well with HC Kevin Stefanski’s motion action playbook
2 Hunter Henry 25 Los Angeles Chargers Franchise Tag The #2 TE on the market will stay with the Chargers barring an unexpected trade.
Expect Henry and LA to work on a long term deal
3 Eric Ebron 25
4 Greg Olsen 35 Seattle Seahawks 1 yr/$7m ($5.5m gtd) Olsen showed he had a little left in the tank last year and should be Russell Wilson’s favorite safety valve in 2020.
You can draft Olsen as a back end TE1 in 2020
5 Tyler Eifert 29
6 Jimmy Graham 34 Chicago Bears 2 yrs/$16m Well this is gross. Jimmy Graham has been washed up for years and isn’t at all what Chicago needs.
They have enough money tied up in bad TEs
7 Jason Witten 37 Las Vegas Raiders 1 yr/$4.75m
8 Jordan Reed 29 Please. Just retire. We beg you, Jordan.

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